| Resumo : |
The Air Traffic Management (ATM) system enables the safe and efficient movement of aircraft through airspace and on the ground. As the ATM has a major influence on flight trajectories, it can substantially impact flight times and fuel consumption in aviation, and consequently, aviation operational costs and environmental impacts. Therefore, to support anticipated industry growth and enhance air travel efficiency, it is crucial to identify the areas of greatest impact of ATM-related factors on flight time and fuel consumption. However, there is still no consensus on how to characterize and monitor this additional fuel consumption related to ATM, given the complexity of analyzing large quantities of flight trajectories and establishing plausible references. In this context, the present thesis employs an empirical modeling approach of commercial aviation fuel consumption and flight time to assess ATM performance. Using comprehensive datasets from trajectory surveillance, the Brazilian National Air Transport Statistical Database, and meteorological sources, the research employs linear regression models to estimate the effects of meteorological conditions, traffic intensity, and airspace structure on flight time and fuel consumption, exploring aggregated and airport-specific performance results. Besides that, the thesis also analyzes the reliability of the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Global Air Navigation Plan (GANP), which functions as proxies for extra fuel consumption in aviation. To do so, the KPIs were employed as independent variables in multiple linear regression models of actual fuel consumption. This allows for estimating additional fuel consumption related to non-continuous climbs and descents and to additional time or distance flown. The robustness of the results was compared across models with data from the busiest airports and routes in Brazil. The results suggest, for example, that traffic intensity was related to approximately 62 kilograms of additional fuel per flight. The estimates also indicate a substantial impact of the terminal airspace structure, with even higher magnitude than the traffic intensity. The results of the KPIs models suggest that less than 10 kilograms of fuel per flight on average could be saved with additional continuous climbs and descents; on the other hand, the estimates indicate that inefficiencies in the horizontal flight profile inside terminal areas lead to an additional consumption of around 130 kg per flight on average. The findings suggest there are differences in the impacts of traffic intensity and adverse weather conditions among airports. Some airports presented better efficiency levels for the same level of traffic intensity, such as Brasília International Airport. The study also suggests there is some variability in fuel burn rates for each KPI across different airports and routes, evidencing the need for sample-specific estimation of these parameters for ATM. |